Chicken Little Talk
The sky is falling! That seemed to be the message from the newspapers, the 'new' economic policies posited by the Presidential hopefuls and the morning news shows. Matt Lauer even anchored the Today Show from the NYSE to 'emphasize' the urgency of the day's news: The Markets are Scared. I always worry when I see the TV anchors go on location at the Stock Exchange. They never go downtown when the Dow is up ... just when the markets are headed south. I worry because the ramped up commentary usually only serves to stoke the fires of fear in the hearts of consumers everywhere. The economy needs help -- yes. But some of the talk isn't helpful. Read on ... Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spent three hours on the hill talking about the economy, resisting the bait thrown from both sides of the aisle. He's still got tools in his monetary policy box at his disposal. The Presidential wanna-be's are putting for 'fix-it quick' plans. Banks are writing off even more losses thanks to not only the sub-prime mortgage mess ... but 'side bets' made on whether various loans would go bad. (See today's Wall Street Journal for an eye opening primer on that!
I just can't help but think the majority of the mess is all attributable to a lack of one thing: common sense. Loans that far exceed the collateral behind them, houses purchased at a cost far above the '30% of your monthly income' rule-of-thumb. Financial instruments whose underlying structures are so complex they defy explanation. In many cases these are houses made of cards and the cards themselves were made of rice paper. A few drops of rain and -- whoosh! The whole thing collapses.
Except - one thing. Most Americans have common sense. Sensible folks don't spend more than they can make and don't borrow more than they can pay back. We pass clothes on from sibling to sibling. We make healthy soups from our leftovers. We dream of a fabulous vacation, but are content to spend a weekend at the local beach. We save for our future, and perhaps have the occasional splurge on today. But we don't splurge wantonly. We know the choices we make about our health, our families and our finances can have life long implications.
Are the "smart guys" who work on Wall Street really that stupid? Or are they just lucky? More of the latter, I think. They've piled up billions for their firms and millions in their own pockets moving money in and out of their complicated financing schemes. Yes, the money has been, in part, the grease that's kept economc wheels whirling. Ponzi schemes also put money in pockets ... the pockets of those who got in early. The longer the Ponzi lasts, the greater the risk becomes. Maybe this game's just gone on too long???
But breathless broadcasters don't help. The following quote from today's Journal Op-Ed page in a column from former Ways and Means Committee head Bill Thomas and Alex M. Brinn resonated with me: "The amplified rhetoric of economic doom from leaders and hopeful leaders in Washington may become a self-fulfilling prophecy as consumers curtail their spending in response to the predictions of recession by their favorite candidates.". I might add 'their favorite pundit' to the list.
Chicken little -- please go home.


Dear Deborah, Thank You for
Dear Deborah,
Thank You for sharing your thoughts with us! I enjoyed reading what you have to say...& it really does make alot of sense..to me it does!
I hope that you had a great time in Seattle. I live in B.C. Canada, & if I lived in Seattle...I would have come to your book signing to meet you, say "Hello" & Thank You!
"Congratulations" also on the 20th anniversary of Inside Edition! I haven't visited your website during the past few weeks & I missed out on leaving you my comments. You always do a great job hosting the show...so "Thank You" Deborah for the great work that you have done in the past...& will continue to do in the future!
Best Wishes,...Paul